Ahead of Tesla’s report, analysts expect $28.3 billion in revenue and a 17.9% margin

Tesla has published a company-compiled consensus of analyst estimates ahead of its third-quarter financial report. The average of 23 analysts’ estimates is $28.341 billion in revenue, a 17.9% gross margin and GAAP earnings per share of $0.23. The average estimate for non-GAAP earnings per share, which excludes certain items, is $0.45.

These figures are not Tesla management guidance or reported results. Tesla explicitly says it does not endorse analysts’ information or conclusions. The company is due to publish its actual Q3 financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, October 21. The question-and-answer webcast is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern).

What the consensus includes

The average revenue estimate comprises $20.272 billion from automotive, $3.720 billion from energy generation and storage, and $4.349 billion from services and other. Analysts’ average estimate for free cash flow is negative $4.506 billion; their average estimates for operating cash flow and capital expenditures are $3.267 billion and $7.771 billion, respectively.

The number of analyst inputs varies by metric: for example, revenue includes 23 estimates, while operating cash flow includes 20. These figures are therefore a summary reference, not a single forecast based on an identical sample for every line. Tesla does not provide its own targets in this release and does not validate the consensus.

Separate from the delivery figures already reported

On October 2, Tesla reported actual global vehicle production, deliveries and energy-storage deployments for the quarter. Today’s financial update is a separate release: it will provide revenue, expenses, profit, cash flows and the company’s commentary. Analyst averages should not be presented as the quarter’s reported results.